By India’s global capability centres are projected to add 1 to 1.4 million net jobs by 2031, taking total GCC employment in the country to between 3.3 and 3.7 million from approximately 2.3 million today, according to a report published by Embark on 23 October 2026. The report, titled “India GCCs in the AI Era: Implications for Workforce Growth and Office Demand”, draws on a survey of 100 GCC leaders in India and forecasts that the expansion will also generate 150 to 170 million square feet of incremental office demand.
Aravind Maiya, CEO and Co-founder of Embark, said: “AI is reshaping GCCs from delivery centres into strategic capability hubs. India’s opportunity is to turn AI adoption into measurable business value, driving demand for specialist talent and supporting continued workforce and office growth through 2031.” Existing GCCs are expected to account for around 80 percent of incremental workforce additions, with expansion of existing mandates and formation of new centres contributing 1.2 to 1.5 million jobs, while AI-led role creation is projected to add approximately 0.3 million positions. Automation, slower backfilling and role consolidation are expected to moderate demand for routine roles by 0.4 to 0.5 million.
What the report actually projects
The headline range of 1 to 1.4 million net new jobs is the result of offsetting forces. On one side, the expansion of existing GCC mandates and the establishment of new centres are projected to contribute 1.2 to 1.5 million jobs. On the other, automation and role consolidation are expected to reduce demand for routine positions by 0.4 to 0.5 million. AI-led role creation adds roughly 0.3 million positions on top. The net effect is the 1 to 1.4 million figure.
The report also estimates that India’s AI-specialist talent pool will reach 0.8 to 0.9 million by 2031. Around 3,144 viable Global 5000 companies had not yet established GCCs in India at the time of the report, with potential for 590 to 640 new centres by 2031. Mid-market companies are projected to account for approximately 28 percent of these new setups. Nano GCCs employing 5 to 100 specialists are expected to provide a lower-capital entry point for companies seeking access to India’s talent pool.
Where the jobs will be and what skills matter
The report points to rising demand for specialised capabilities in artificial intelligence, data, platform engineering, cybersecurity, solution architecture, governance and observability. This is a shift from the traditional GCC model built around back-office processing and routine IT support. HR and payroll teams inside GCCs should expect hiring to become more competitive for these specialist roles, with the AI talent pool projected to reach only 0.8 to 0.9 million by 2031 against a much larger total GCC workforce.
For HR leaders in India, the practical implication is that workforce planning cannot rely on historical attrition and backfill patterns. The report’s finding that automation and slower backfilling will moderate demand for routine roles by 0.4 to 0.5 million means some existing job families will shrink even as overall headcount grows. Payroll teams will need to manage a more varied workforce mix, including specialist contractors and Nano GCC structures, which may operate with different compliance and tax treatment depending on the state and entity model. Employers should confirm specific payroll and labour law obligations with their own advisers, as rules vary across Indian states.
How this compares with earlier projections
The report’s 2031 timeline differs from earlier public projections. A TechCircle article slug referenced a figure of 1.3 million jobs by 2030, though the page itself was unavailable. The Embark report’s range of 1 to 1.4 million by 2031 is broadly consistent in magnitude but extends the timeline by a year and widens the range. The discrepancy between 2030 and 2031 figures may reflect different report vintages or methodologies, and readers should treat the Embark numbers as the most current available for the 2031 horizon.
| Projection element | Embark report figure |
|---|---|
| Current GCC employment | Approximately 2.3 million |
| Projected GCC employment by 2031 | 3.3 to 3.7 million |
| Net new jobs by 2031 | 1 to 1.4 million |
| Incremental office demand | 150 to 170 million sq. ft. |
| New centres by 2031 | 590 to 640 |
| AI-specialist talent pool by 2031 | 0.8 to 0.9 million |
What HR and payroll teams should do now
The report’s emphasis on existing GCCs driving around 80 percent of incremental workforce additions means the largest hiring pressure will come from expansion within current centres rather than entirely new setups. HR teams should map their current skill inventory against the demand areas named in the report: AI, data, platform engineering, cybersecurity, solution architecture, governance and observability. Where gaps exist, internal upskilling may be faster than external hiring given the projected constraints on specialist talent supply.
Payroll and HR operations teams should also prepare for more diverse employment models. Nano GCCs employing 5 to 100 specialists may use different engagement structures than large centres, and mid-market companies entering India for the first time will need support on statutory compliance, provident fund, professional tax and state-specific labour law requirements. The report does not provide state-by-state guidance, so employers should confirm local rules with qualified advisers before setting up payroll in a new Indian state.
Sources: ETHRWorld
Photo: Office workers COVID-19 Mexico City by Cocu15, CC BY-SA 4.0
