By Rising workplace heat could cost the Maldives around US$576 million in annual GDP by 2040, equivalent to roughly 2,400 full-time jobs, according to new country studies published by the International Labour Organization (ILO). The findings, released on 30 October 2026, form part of a six-country research initiative also covering Sri Lanka, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon and Senegal.
Combined with Sri Lanka, the projected annual GDP loss across the two South Asian countries reaches around US$26.6 billion by 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway. Reduced working time caused by heat stress is projected to amount to the equivalent of around 147,000 full-time jobs across both countries. Joni Simpson, ILO Country Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives, said the findings “make clear that heat stress is already affecting workers, enterprises and economies” and called for heat protection to be integrated into occupational safety and health, climate adaptation and economic resilience.
What the ILO study actually measured
The ILO studies use a historical reference period of 1985 to 2014 and project forward to 2040. The headline figures represent lost labour productivity and reduced working hours caused by heat stress, converted into economic output. The Maldives share is approximately US$576 million in annual GDP loss and 2,400 full-time-job equivalents, while Sri Lanka accounts for the bulk of the combined figure at around US$26 billion and 145,000 jobs.
The studies identify services and construction as the sectors likely to feel the greatest impact in the Maldives. That matters because the Maldivian economy is heavily dependent on tourism, resort operations and construction, much of which involves outdoor or semi-outdoor work. The ILO does not provide an atoll-by-atoll breakdown or separate figures for male and female workers in the published release.
Why the Maldives labour market is uniquely exposed
The Maldives workforce has a structural feature that amplifies heat stress risk: a large share of workers in construction, resort maintenance and outdoor services are migrant workers. The ILO release does not break down the Maldives projection by nationality, but the concentration of outdoor labour in migrant-heavy sectors means employers and payroll teams need to consider how heat affects labour supply, productivity and worker health across the entire workforce.
The tourism product itself is also exposed. Resort maintenance schedules, kitchen and laundry operations, airport ramp work and construction all involve heat-generating environments. When outdoor work slows or stops during the hottest periods, the effects ripple through guest services, project timelines and payroll costs. The ILO figures translate reduced working time into economic loss, but the operational reality for HR teams is more immediate: shifts that must be rescheduled, productivity that falls during peak heat, and workers who need rest, hydration and shade to remain safe.
What employers can do now
The ILO studies identify several practical measures that employers and policymakers can adopt. These include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods, introducing appropriate work-rest cycles, providing shade, hydration and cooling facilities, strengthening workplace heat monitoring and occupational safety and health standards, improving awareness of heat-related risks, and strengthening social protection for workers who may be unable to reduce working hours without losing essential income.
For HR and payroll teams in the Maldives, the immediate steps are operational. Review outdoor and semi-outdoor shift patterns to see whether start times can move earlier or later. Check whether employment contracts and workplace policies allow flexible scheduling during extreme heat. Ensure supervisors are trained to recognise heat illness symptoms and that first-aid protocols cover heat-related emergencies. Payroll teams should also consider how changed shift patterns affect overtime calculations, allowances and statutory contributions.
The ILO does not state specific next steps for the Maldives government, but the emphasis on social dialogue suggests that employers, workers and government institutions will need to discuss whether existing occupational safety and health rules adequately address heat. Employers should confirm their obligations under the Maldives Employment Act and any applicable occupational safety regulations, and seek guidance from the Ministry of Economic Development or the Ministry of Labour where rules are unclear.
The policy gap and what comes next
The ILO release does not indicate whether the Maldives has a national heat action plan or whether the government has responded to the findings. The studies form part of a broader six-country research initiative supported through the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20) and the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund. That framing positions heat stress as both a workplace safety issue and a macroeconomic risk for climate-vulnerable economies.
The 2040 projection is not a distant concern. The ILO also cites 2023 data on additional losses compared with the historical reference period, meaning the productivity erosion is already measurable. For HR leaders, the practical question is not whether heat will affect their workforce but how quickly they can adapt shift design, workplace infrastructure and health monitoring before the losses compound.
Sources: International Labour Organization
Photo: 12-6-25, chaleur à Paris (ouvriers autour d'une fontaine Wallace) - btv1b5315050 by Agence Rol. Agence photographique (commanditaire), Public domain
